IAORION

Informe de investigación PAT_MATCHINGLOW

Motor 3 · Investigación. No es una cuenta financiada ni una promesa de ganancias.

trend/opp

No supera filtros de desarrollo/selección o estabilidad

{
  "id": "60ac6410e60193a47b42",
  "engine_version": "3.0.0",
  "entrada": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
  "familia": "Velas",
  "regimen": "trend",
  "salida": "opp",
  "activos": [],
  "discovery_assets": [],
  "descubierto": null,
  "first_seen": "2026-10-13T08:39:15.136458+00:00",
  "evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T08:00:01.996908+00:00",
  "categoria": "DESCARTADA",
  "base_passed": false,
  "walk_forward": null,
  "forward": {
    "n": 0,
    "net_R": 0.0,
    "expectancy_R": null,
    "pf": null,
    "max_drawdown_R": 0.0,
    "win_rate": null,
    "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
    "funding_approved": false
  },
  "funding_approved": false,
  "p_revienta": null,
  "risk_probability_status": "not_estimated",
  "razon": "No supera filtros de desarrollo/selección o estabilidad",
  "markets": {
    "BTCUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "BTCUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 8.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "76409a9d835d559b68e7"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 30,
        "net_R": 53.35659491869668,
        "expectancy_R": 1.778553163956556,
        "pf": 3.054908322176965,
        "max_drawdown_R": 7.346900034650666,
        "win_rate": 0.16666666666666666,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 9,
        "net_R": 12.869210866831597,
        "expectancy_R": 1.429912318536844,
        "pf": 2.778079950157282,
        "max_drawdown_R": 6.205675381748691,
        "win_rate": 0.2222222222222222,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 10,
        "net_R": 2.758169505374858,
        "expectancy_R": 0.2758169505374858,
        "pf": 1.3318334399051466,
        "max_drawdown_R": 4.186899156905621,
        "win_rate": 0.2,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-28 12:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 04:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "ETHUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "ETHUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 9.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "7ede4aade2947425a816"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 28,
        "net_R": 44.72416617857429,
        "expectancy_R": 1.5972916492347962,
        "pf": 2.7331283304666547,
        "max_drawdown_R": 16.465574568437212,
        "win_rate": 0.10714285714285714,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 8,
        "net_R": 6.563898962238361,
        "expectancy_R": 0.8204873702797951,
        "pf": 1.9137014844968472,
        "max_drawdown_R": 6.169063605995228,
        "win_rate": 0.125,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 14,
        "net_R": -10.473062958369411,
        "expectancy_R": -0.7480759255978151,
        "pf": 0.2191420390279493,
        "max_drawdown_R": 10.473062958369411,
        "win_rate": 0.07142857142857142,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": 1,
        "entry": 2236.63,
        "rd": 60.55376587435696,
        "sl": 2176.076234125643,
        "tp": 2357.737531748714,
        "highest": 2450.0,
        "lowest": 2206.28,
        "bars": 41,
        "open_ts": "2026-10-30 12:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": -0.16166568434921733
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-28 12:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 04:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "SOLUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "SOLUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 10.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "a113569887a00c27efca"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 28,
        "net_R": 39.76631171656812,
        "expectancy_R": 1.4202254184488614,
        "pf": 2.5515729510684353,
        "max_drawdown_R": 9.257804510604664,
        "win_rate": 0.10714285714285714,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 9,
        "net_R": -9.258588713389042,
        "expectancy_R": -1.028732079265449,
        "pf": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_R": 9.258588713389043,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 11,
        "net_R": 2.414491337029884,
        "expectancy_R": 0.21949921245726217,
        "pf": 1.2914875857601351,
        "max_drawdown_R": 4.036578453016503,
        "win_rate": 0.2727272727272727,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-28 12:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 04:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "BNBUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "BNBUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 9.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "52517c83ca499e15c665"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 24,
        "net_R": 0.9213181228564258,
        "expectancy_R": 0.03838825511901774,
        "pf": 1.0420244572278625,
        "max_drawdown_R": 13.648149586415064,
        "win_rate": 0.125,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 7,
        "net_R": 6.334940895922334,
        "expectancy_R": 0.9049915565603335,
        "pf": 2.0237816598269944,
        "max_drawdown_R": 4.082395266174006,
        "win_rate": 0.14285714285714285,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 7,
        "net_R": -2.28923986017984,
        "expectancy_R": -0.3270342657399771,
        "pf": 0.5611461669211686,
        "max_drawdown_R": 4.58884202132669,
        "win_rate": 0.2857142857142857,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-28 12:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 04:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "XRPUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "XRPUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 10.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "f2400bf585d401d407e4"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 24,
        "net_R": 14.680032413319017,
        "expectancy_R": 0.6116680172216257,
        "pf": 1.7111213285069613,
        "max_drawdown_R": 10.303382663098946,
        "win_rate": 0.125,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 8,
        "net_R": 10.990316760852242,
        "expectancy_R": 1.3737895951065302,
        "pf": 2.526036670432456,
        "max_drawdown_R": 5.14461175701309,
        "win_rate": 0.125,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 15,
        "net_R": -15.504123082631658,
        "expectancy_R": -1.0336082055087772,
        "pf": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_R": 15.504123082631658,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-28 12:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 04:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "BTCUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "BTCUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 8.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "7739abbee3ed97658a2b"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 32,
        "net_R": -2.8276596249610817,
        "expectancy_R": -0.0883643632800338,
        "pf": 0.9071522266894797,
        "max_drawdown_R": 11.650418693482976,
        "win_rate": 0.125,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 8,
        "net_R": -1.5432834161799018,
        "expectancy_R": -0.19291042702248773,
        "pf": 0.8052387989458033,
        "max_drawdown_R": 5.727300913794512,
        "win_rate": 0.125,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 12,
        "net_R": -2.6912052272742466,
        "expectancy_R": -0.22426710227285387,
        "pf": 0.7791300248427334,
        "max_drawdown_R": 8.920192990961894,
        "win_rate": 0.08333333333333333,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-27 09:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 07:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "ETHUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "ETHUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 9.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "a1451869ec5b63bf3497"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 46,
        "net_R": -30.702782369996314,
        "expectancy_R": -0.6674517906520938,
        "pf": 0.3336098814514428,
        "max_drawdown_R": 33.459094809249756,
        "win_rate": 0.06521739130434782,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 9,
        "net_R": -5.493195457999047,
        "expectancy_R": -0.610355050888783,
        "pf": 0.3755763230082933,
        "max_drawdown_R": 5.493195457999048,
        "win_rate": 0.1111111111111111,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 15,
        "net_R": -16.248084741276173,
        "expectancy_R": -1.0832056494184115,
        "pf": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_R": 16.248084741276173,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-27 09:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 07:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "SOLUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "SOLUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 10.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "e52ba2c84a9583af3a61"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 28,
        "net_R": -2.9438798801719805,
        "expectancy_R": -0.1051385671489993,
        "pf": 0.8859238558938627,
        "max_drawdown_R": 16.01946752322472,
        "win_rate": 0.14285714285714285,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 9,
        "net_R": -9.809121740433831,
        "expectancy_R": -1.089902415603759,
        "pf": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_R": 9.809121740433831,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 10,
        "net_R": -10.878747993884366,
        "expectancy_R": -1.0878747993884366,
        "pf": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_R": 10.878747993884367,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": 1,
        "entry": 89.97,
        "rd": 1.7274751296928292,
        "sl": 88.24252487030716,
        "tp": 93.42495025938565,
        "highest": 90.57,
        "lowest": 88.3,
        "bars": 10,
        "open_ts": "2026-11-05 22:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": -0.21987291942520215
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-27 09:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 07:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "BNBUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "BNBUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 9.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "c00e7d319c7dd4fca9a8"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 26,
        "net_R": -6.976068805564809,
        "expectancy_R": -0.2683103386755696,
        "pf": 0.7312902596289904,
        "max_drawdown_R": 17.466985065458026,
        "win_rate": 0.07692307692307693,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 4,
        "net_R": -4.526046472578791,
        "expectancy_R": -1.1315116181446978,
        "pf": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_R": 4.526046472578791,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 9,
        "net_R": -9.908629808305085,
        "expectancy_R": -1.100958867589454,
        "pf": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_R": 9.908629808305081,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-27 09:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 07:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "XRPUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_MATCHINGLOW",
        "exit": "opp",
        "regime": "trend",
        "market": "XRPUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 10.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "49872978c15a18b5d89d"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 29,
        "net_R": -22.942710028916196,
        "expectancy_R": -0.7911279320315929,
        "pf": 0.20962835833010812,
        "max_drawdown_R": 24.162834010520132,
        "win_rate": 0.06896551724137931,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 6,
        "net_R": -6.516844920957295,
        "expectancy_R": -1.0861408201595493,
        "pf": 0.0,
        "max_drawdown_R": 6.516844920957295,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 5,
        "net_R": -0.2555839129892956,
        "expectancy_R": -0.05111678259785912,
        "pf": 0.9401967607850129,
        "max_drawdown_R": 3.1939236196209446,
        "win_rate": 0.2,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-27 09:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-11-06 07:00:00+00:00"
    }
  },
  "selection_bias": "Repeated rolling search; not independent final validation"
}

Registro completo